An international study estimates that global warming could cause premature thermal deterioration of infrastructure and reduce its lifespan by up to 25 years if the current rise in temperatures continues.
Conducted by researchers at the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) in Spain and the Hunan Institute of Science and Engineering in China, the study “presents a new model that evaluates the effect of extreme temperatures on the durability of infrastructures and the impact of this deterioration on carbon emissions,” reported today by the Spanish news agency EFE based on a statement from UPV.
The projections made using that model indicate that global warming could shorten the lifespan of infrastructures worldwide “between 18.52 and 25.15 years by 2100.”
The work represents an in-depth investigation into the impact of global warming on critical infrastructures, particularly concrete cable-stayed bridges (supported by steel cables directly connected to towers or pylons), revealing a double pressure.
“Warming accelerates structural degradation and, at the same time, amplifies the embedded carbon emissions due to the need for premature demolitions and unplanned repairs,” says Víctor Yepes of UPV, one of the four authors of the study, together with Zhiwu Zhou, Faxing Ding and Julián Alcalá.
The research team concluded that, due to the warming recorded over the last century, “8.67% of cable-stayed bridges worldwide have entered a phase of premature demolition during their lifetimes, generating excess carbon emissions of more than 100,000 tons — equivalent to 2.7 times the carbon production projected during the original design phase,” according to EFE.
To develop and validate the model, the team analyzed four bridges located in China and subjected to very different climatic and altitude conditions: the Nan’ao Bridge in Shantou, Guangdong Province; the Meixi River Bridge near Fengjie, Chongqing Municipality; the Wuhekou Bridge in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province; and the Xiaoxihu Bridge over the Yellow River in Lanzhou, Gansu Province.
“The cases range from subtropical monsoon climates to temperate continental climates, allowing us to observe how thermal gradients unevenly affect structural durability,” explains Julián Alcalá of UPV, also cited in the press release.
Warning of the danger, especially in temperate maritime and continental climate regions identified as highly vulnerable areas, the researchers argue that the design, maintenance, and reinforcement of infrastructures should take future climatic scenarios into account, “to help anticipate damages and reduce the costs and emissions resulting from premature interventions.”
