The World Meteorological Organization predicts that the tropical Pacific surface temperature may reach 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, intensifying the risk of extreme weather events across various regions of the world.
The current El Niño episode could reach an unprecedented intensity, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released on October 21. Between November 2026 and January 2027, the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific could reach 3.8°C above average, a figure far exceeding the 0.5°C threshold used by the organization to declare an event of this climatic phenomenon.
“It’s literally outside the scales of monitoring we’ve used in the last four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO. The official expects El Niño to peak near the end of 2026, but warns that its effects are expected to extend beyond that period.
El Niño alters the usual patterns of temperature and precipitation, potentially causing severe droughts in some regions and heavy rains and floods in others. The phenomenon is also associated with rising temperatures across vast areas of the planet. The WMO anticipates that, as the episode intensifies, extreme weather events will become more frequent and may trigger successive impacts.
Despite the risks, Celeste Saulo emphasizes that an intense episode does not necessarily have to lead to a humanitarian crisis. The organization argues that scientific forecasts and early warning systems can help save lives and protect livelihoods, provided they are accompanied by concrete measures, especially to support the most vulnerable communities.
Editorial note: the forecast of 3.8°C above average is the figure indicated in the WMO communiqué for the period November 2026 to January 2027; it does not signify an equivalent rise in global mean temperature.
