There are likely to be few countries that, by the end of the decade, will have achieved the international targets they set for transforming their food production systems, in order to align them, for example, with the Sustainable Development Goals.
The warning comes in a study published in the journal Nature Food, by the scientific consortium “Food Systems Countdown Initiative” (FSCI), led by Cornell University and Johns Hopkins University, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.
The researchers analyzed the food systems of 197 countries, applying 44 indicators distributed across five major areas: diets, nutrition and health; environment, natural resources and production; livelihoods, poverty and equity; governance; and resilience.
The team, composed of dozens of scientists, says that this is the most comprehensive assessment of the performance of food systems ever conducted, and that the work goes beyond merely stating whether countries are moving in the right direction, but also the path they still have to travel to reach the international targets.
“It is that distinction between monitoring and evaluating performance that transforms a monitoring exercise into a tool for accountability,” says Bianca Carducci, from the Columbia Climate School and the study’s first author.
The analysis reveals that for a large portion of the indicators applied, most countries remain behind, even though the deadline for achieving these targets is approaching rapidly.
The researchers highlight, for example, the indicator “greenhouse gas emissions from food systems” as one of the ones farthest from being achieved. On average, countries still have 75% of the distance to travel to 2030.
The study authors say that the majority of world regions would need “drastic annual changes” to reach these targets. Africa would need, at a minimum, improvements of 15% to 20% per year in 23 indicators, and Asia would have to reduce regional food insecurity by more than 63% every year.
The wealthier regions do not fare better in the picture. According to the analysis, Europe has 19 indicators that, under current trends, remain unattainable by 2030.
Other indicators are regressing, such as the space for civil society participation, government accountability, sales of ultra-processed foods, water withdrawals for agriculture, pesticide use, and changes in emissions from food systems.
“Even with an additional 20 years of effort, the targets for some indicators would remain essentially out of reach, such as emissions from food systems, child labor and food insecurity,” the article reads.
“And this is because many countries are either stagnating, moving in the wrong direction or require rates of change that far exceed any annual progress observed over time,” they add.
Despite the discouraging picture, the researchers say that progress has been made on several indicators and that there is still reason to believe that some countries will be able to achieve the targets they have committed to.
The team says it is urgent to drive improvements across all indicators, with priority given to areas such as access to food, food insecurity and emissions of production systems.
“Transforming food systems is a shared responsibility. Governance indicators, including governmental effectiveness, accountability and civil society participation, are not just a category among five. They are the enablers that make progress possible. Improving them enables advancement across the entire system,” argues Lawrence Haddad, executive director of the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition and coauthor of the work.
