Last month was the hottest October ever recorded worldwide, with a global average surface air temperature 1.75 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels, announced today by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The analysis conducted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) notes that October “was the third month consecutively to exceed 1.5 °C”, indicating the statistical forecast now shows “almost certainty” (probability greater than 99%) that 2026 will “surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, becoming the second year to do so after 2024”, the hottest year on record.
Specifically, October 2026 had a surface air temperature average of 15.35°C, 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average, according to the Copernicus statement.
Sea surface temperature also remained “exceptionally elevated” in October, reaching an average temperature outside polar regions of 20.95 °C, “the highest ever recorded for October, surpassing the previous monthly record set in 2023”.
“October continued the pattern of notable global warming, with record global and surface ocean temperatures. An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding even more heat to a climate already warmed by human activities, while 2026 is on track to become the second calendar year above 1.5°C. Particularly notable is the fact that the four-year average is also expected to exceed 1.5°C, underscoring the duration of this period of global warming,” says Samantha Burgess, head of ECMWF’s Climate Strategy.
Copernicus’s analysis also indicates that Europe registered its second warmest October on record, noting that “unlike September and much of the summer, temperatures were more above the average in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, while large parts of Western and Central Europe showed cooler-than-average temperature anomalies”.
It adds that river discharges remained “exceptionally low” in much of central and eastern Europe, affecting the Rhine, the Danube and the Vistula, and recovered in parts of Western Europe, as drought conditions in October eased compared with September, with heavy rains and floods affecting several countries, including the United Kingdom and Ireland, Spain, Greece and Turkey.
As for sea surface temperatures, they continued at record October levels along the Atlantic coast and in the western Mediterranean, contributing to the warming of adjacent continental areas.
