The heat wave that swept across Europe last June may have caused losses of two billion euros in the revenues of cereal producers forecast for this year.
The estimates are advanced in an analysis by the think tank Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), which covers crops such as wheat, barley and corn. The analysts caution that this figure does not include other costs, such as losses of livestock and vegetable crops, meaning that the impacts of last month’s extreme event may be even greater.
The analysis follows a COCERAL’s July 10 forecast, issued by a European association representing sectors such as cereals, olive oil and rice. According to the entity, the June heat wave reduced the projections for the cereal campaign in the European Union and the United Kingdom to 286.6 million tonnes, a reduction of about nine million compared with the forecasts issued one month earlier.
“The June heat wave came at a terrible time for European cereal producers, affecting crop development and reducing yields across the continent,” says Tom Lancaster, soil, food and agriculture analyst at the ECIU. He adds that “this will hurt farmers’ pockets, reducing their incomes and, at the same time, compromising European food security.”
The new forecasts indicate that France will be the country most affected by the heat wave’s effects on cereal production, with an additional estimated loss of 891 million euros, due to four million tonnes fewer cereals forecast in July than those predicted in June.
Portugal is among the European countries whose forecasts were not changed.
“With clear scientific evidence that climate change was the cause of the severity of the June heat wave, these losses are only a foretaste of the future impacts we will face if we do not achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and restore the climate balance,” warns Lancaster.
Furthermore, the analysts say that the losses will make Europe more dependent on imports and could contribute to further price increases.
