The temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are already in the El Niño phase and are expected to continue until early 2027, with a very strong phenomenon forecast, confirmed today by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA).
IPMA today issued an update on the well-known warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, which causes changes in climate at a global level.
The institute cites the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NOAA), of the United States, to say that the temperature indicator is already in the “El Niño” phase and that temperatures are 1.2°C above normal.
The so-called ENSO index is an indicator that measures the state of the ocean–atmosphere interaction phenomenon.
With it, one can identify whether the world is facing an “El Niño,” whether sea-surface temperatures are above normal, facing “La Niña” if they are below normal, or in a neutral phase when temperatures are at normal values.
In the communiqué, IPMA says that forecasts from several models point to a probability of more than 99% that an “El Niño” episode will persist through to early 2027.
They also point to a probability of more than 80% that a very strong “El Niño” event will occur.
IPMA reaffirms that, although the phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it can significantly influence global climate patterns.
The effects of the “El Niño” phenomenon in Portugal are not direct nor statistically significant, but IPMA will continue to monitor the evolution of the situation and disclose updates whenever warranted.
The World Meteorological Organization, which corroborates the CPC/NOAA information, warns that, given the intensity of the phenomenon, the risks of occurrence of extreme weather events will rise, especially in the tropical and equatorial belt.
Among these impacts are heat waves, drought episodes and periods of intense precipitation, mainly in the planet’s equatorial belt, says the organization, also cited by IPMA.
