Climate change could cause more than 500,000 additional malaria deaths in Africa by 2050, researchers warn in a study now published in the scientific journal Nature. The research also estimates that the number of new cases of the disease could rise by more than 100 million in the coming decades, with a particularly severe impact on children.
The study, led by teams from The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University, used an unprecedented model that analyzed 25 years of data on climate, malaria incidence, disease-control measures, socioeconomic indicators, and patterns of extreme weather events across the African continent.
According to the researchers, the main drivers of this worsening will not be simply the gradual changes in temperature or precipitation traditionally linked to the proliferation of the malaria-carrying mosquito, but above all the rising frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as floods and cyclones. These events could account for about 79% of the rise in new cases and 93% of the additional deaths associated with climate change.
According to the study, much of Africa already has ecological conditions favorable to malaria transmission. However, the disease incidence has been kept relatively controlled thanks to improvements in housing, the use of bed nets, vector control, and access to diagnosis and treatment. The problem arises when extreme events destroy infrastructure, damage bed nets, and disrupt the functioning of health services, creating conditions for a rapid and prolonged increase in transmission.
The study’s lead author, Tasmin Symons, emphasizes that these conclusions challenge the prevailing view of the relationship between climate change and malaria. “Much of the previous research has focused on the direct effects of climate on mosquitoes and parasites. What we show is that the greatest threat comes from disruption caused by extreme events, which weaken health systems and control measures,” she explains.
According to the researcher, even if climate change has a relatively moderate impact on the ecology of transmission at a continental scale, the combination of this effect with the recurring destruction of infrastructure and health services can have very significant consequences, translating into hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
The authors argue that the results highlight the urgent need to integrate climate resilience into malaria-control strategies, strengthening emergency preparedness, accelerating the recovery of health services after natural disasters, and developing control tools less vulnerable to climate shocks.
For the researchers, if global malaria reduction and eventual eradication goals are to remain attainable, it will be essential for public health policies to explicitly incorporate the risks associated with climate change, especially in the most vulnerable regions.
