Europe could avoid 10.6 billion euros in investments in reinforcing the electricity distribution networks by 2030 if it uses intelligent management of electric vehicle (EV) charging. The conclusion comes from a study conducted by Siemens for EIT Urban Mobility, ChargeUp Europe, and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).
According to the study Electrical Grids in Europe, approximately 24.7 billion euros of investment in distribution networks would be needed to accommodate the projected growth of electric vehicles. With the implementation of smart charging management systems, which allow coordinating when and at what rate vehicles are charged, this need could drop to 14.1 billion euros.
The analysis is based on the modeling of 64 representative European cities and assesses the expected evolution of electric vehicle adoption, charging patterns, electricity demand, and grid pressure. The objective was to estimate how digitalization and flexibility can reduce the need for physical infrastructure reinforcements.
The study predicts that the number of fully electric vehicles in the 64 cities analyzed will increase by 3.8 times by 2030. All, according to the model, will require some reinforcement of distribution networks to keep pace with the growth in demand.
The greatest pressure is expected on low-voltage networks, responsible for 77.7% of the needs for physical reinforcement investments. Home charging is identified as one of the main factors, at a time when it is estimated that between 55% and 62% of electric vehicle owners in the analyzed cities will have access to home charging in 2030.
Investment needs, however, are expected to vary significantly between cities. Berlin emerges with an estimate of around 1.15 billion euros by 2030, followed by Amsterdam, with more than 1.1 billion, and Munich, with almost 900 million. Paris may require around 490 million euros, while Stockholm, Krakow, Barcelona and Rome show estimates of 161, 165, 220 and 123 million euros, respectively.
The location and timing of charging will be decisive for the pressure exerted on the networks. The study considers different contexts — home, workplace, public streets, roads and charging stations — and concludes that demand management could allow better use of the capacity already available.
The electrification of commercial vehicles is also expected to increase pressure on infrastructures. For light commercial vehicles, the model predicts a share of 22.7% battery-electric vehicles in Sweden, 9.1% in Germany, and 5.9% in Poland by 2030. In the latter country, the fleet of electric vans could grow almost tenfold compared with 2024.
Differences in access to home charging could further determine the need for public infrastructures. Cities where a smaller share of residents have home charging facilities should rely more on public charging points, making it necessary to coordinate the installation of these infrastructures with the planning of the electrical grids.
For Adriana Diaz, the Director of Innovation and Strategy at EIT Urban Mobility, electrification of transport will have to be accompanied by a change in how the grids are used. “Innovation and a smarter use of the existing capacity could avoid more than 10 billion euros in investments in the grids by 2030,” she says.
The same idea is supported by ACEA. Sigrid de Vries, the association’s director-general, argues that smart charging can significantly reduce the investment required, but stresses that it is necessary to translate this capacity into solutions that are actually implemented.
The study concludes that the expansion of electric mobility should be accompanied by investments in the grids, but also by greater digitalization and flexibility. The combination of these solutions could enable the integration of more electric vehicles without the entire increase in demand having to be offset by new investments in physical infrastructure.
