An international team of 80 scientists from 16 countries proposes carrying out geophysical surveys across the entire coastal region of Antarctica, through three large “rings” of observation around the frozen continent. The aim is to fill knowledge gaps that currently hinder more reliable predictions of Antarctica’s contribution to the rise in the mean sea level.
The proposal, presented in a study published in the journal Reviews of Geophysics, brings together researchers from fields such as glaciology, oceanography, geophysics, and atmospheric science. The work analyzes the interaction between ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and the solid Earth’s structure in the Antarctic coastal zone, identifying the main data that remain missing.
The three proposed “rings” would allow monitoring the flow of ice inside the continent, the zones of contact between the ice and the bedrock, and the ocean-facing ice shelves. According to the researchers, these surveys would help to better understand the processes that are determining the ice loss in Antarctica.
“Scientists would carry out three survey rings on a continent-wide scale around Antarctica – tracking the ice flow inland, the zones of contact with the bedrock, and the ocean-facing ice shelves, in order to capture the critical processes that are determining ice loss,” explains Felicity McCormack, one of the study’s lead authors and a researcher at Monash University.
“This ambitious and globally coordinated campaign would help resolve the greatest uncertainties in predicting the sea-level rise caused by Antarctica, with enormous implications for coastal planning and the support efforts for low-lying countries, including Australia’s neighbors in the Pacific.”
A pivotal zone for sea level
The Antarctic coastline is not merely the border between the continent and the ocean. It is an interconnected system where ice resting on the land meets the ocean, and where small changes can have significant consequences.
One of the critical areas is the so-called grounding zone, the point where the ice ceases to be grounded on the bed and begins to float. Changes in this zone can regulate the amount of ice released to the ocean and, under certain circumstances, trigger mechanisms that accelerate ice loss.
Observations made in recent decades show that Antarctica’s mass loss has increased. The fastest changes are related mainly to the interactions between ice and the ocean and to the movement of ice at the margins of the ice sheet, and not only to surface melting.
However, many of the coastal conditions remain inadequately mapped.
Insufficient data limit predictions
The study identifies one of the main gaps as the absence of direct observations of the seabed topography near the coast and of cavities beneath the ice shelves. These data are particularly important because the models used to simulate the evolution of the ice sheet are highly sensitive to coastal conditions.
Although satellites can measure the movement of ice and surface changes with high precision, they cannot directly observe the rock beneath the ice.
Australia has participated in international efforts to map the rock structure of Antarctica, notably through the airborne geophysics program ICECAP, which produced some of the most detailed measurements of bedrock topography along the edge of East Antarctica.
“Mapping the land and seabed beneath the ice and the ice shelves of Antarctica is essential to accurately forecast the continent’s contribution to future sea-level rise, which is currently the largest source of uncertainty in sea-level projections as the climate changes,” says Felicity McCormack.
“It is time to invest more in emerging technologies that can do this, such as autonomous aerial vehicles and next-generation ice-penetrating radar, to tackle one of humanity’s most critical challenges.”
International Cooperation
The researchers argue that no country could obtain full coverage of the Antarctic coast alone. International coordination will therefore be essential to avoid duplication of work and to ensure that no areas remain unstudied.
“Uncoordinated surveys risk leaving gaps or duplicating efforts. This article provides an evidence-based framework to support the coordination of the RINGS activities within SCAR and COMNAP, helping to build more comprehensive datasets to improve sea-level rise projections,” explains Kenichi Matsuoka, the study’s lead author and chair of the RINGS action group at the Norwegian Polar Institute.
The proposal is supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP), which brings together logistical know-how to support the planning of surveys and coordination among the various national research programs in Antarctica.
“These internationally coordinated efforts can serve as a starting point for the next International Polar Year 2032–33,” concludes Matsuoka.
