The meteorological agency of the Chinese region of Macau warned today that the El Niño phenomenon increases the risk of southern China being hit this year by more intense typhoons.
El Niño is characterized by an increase in surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to twelve months.
Macau’s Meteorological and Geophysical Services (SMG) warned that, when El Niño occurs, “the number of tropical storms entering the South China Sea is, in general, below normal, but their intensity tends to be stronger.”
This is because “the warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean accumulate in the central and eastern regions of the ocean,” so “the locations where tropical storms form shift eastward,” explained the SMG, in a statement.
“As tropical storms have more time to develop over the ocean, continually absorbing water vapor and ocean thermal energy, their intensity tends to be stronger as well,” the agency emphasized.
In addition, the SMG stated, El Niño is expected to transport “more warm and humid air to the region” of southern China, “resulting in Macau’s winter precipitation levels being above normal.”
The agency recalled that, according to forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization and the China National Climate Center, El Niño could be the “strongest since observational records began.”
“Forecasts indicate that its intensity could evolve to the “super-strong” level (surpassing +2.5 °C), and persist until February 2027,” said the SMG.
In May, the acting deputy director of the meteorological agency of the neighboring Hong Kong region had already warned that the phenomenon increases the risk of southern China being hit this year by super typhoons.
The head of the Hong Kong Observatory, Choy Chun-wing, predicted that the region should be affected by between four and seven tropical storms in 2026, fewer than the 14 recorded last year.
However, Choy warned that El Niño increases the likelihood that tropical storms will develop into super typhoons.
Typhoons are recurring phenomena in Southeast Asia, when the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean favor the formation of cyclones, and southern China is hit every year by dozens of these tropical storms.
At the end of March, Macau’s SMG did not rule out the possibility that the region could be affected by super typhoons similar to Ragasa, the most powerful storm recorded on the planet in 2025.
According to a study published in 2024, typhoons in the region are forming closer to the coast than in the past, intensifying more quickly and staying longer on land, as a result of climate change.
According to scientists, climate change is driving more frequent and intense extreme weather events worldwide.
