At the current rate of degradation, the world’s soils could release up to 4.81 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year, according to the report How Soil Can Save the Paris Agreement (How soil can save the Paris Agreement), published today by Save Soil and the international “4 per 1000” initiative at the COP31 climate summit. This figure surpasses the emissions of all cars and vans on the planet and is equivalent to about 90 times Portugal’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.
Over the next 20 years, that amounts to around 96 billion tonnes — more than two years’ worth of global CO₂ emissions.
The soil stores more carbon than the atmosphere and all vegetation together. Plants remove CO₂ from the air and store it underground through their roots. When the soil is ploughed, left bare, or eroded, a large part of that carbon returns to the atmosphere as CO₂.
However, the new report shows that restoring degraded agricultural lands worldwide through regenerative agricultural practices can secure up to 27% of the emission reductions needed to keep warming below 2 °C, returning CO₂ to the soil. The need is urgent: up to 40% of the planet’s land is already degraded, according to the UN.
However, at a time when negotiators are meeting in Antalya (9–20 November), an analysis by Save Soil concluded that more than 70% of countries have not included soil restoration as a mitigation solution in their climate plans (the NDCs — Nationally Determined Contributions).
The EU’s climate plan, which includes Portugal, relies on the land — forests, agricultural land, pastures and wetlands — to absorb 310 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2030, primarily through forests, whose carbon absorption capacity is diminishing. But the current trajectory points to only 183 million. The European Environment Agency warns that, “in general, EU soils are losing carbon”—that is, they are emitting CO₂ rather than absorbing it. This happens because many are degraded: 60 to 70% of EU soils are in poor condition, according to the European Commission, and only drained peatlands emit about 108 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. Soils contribute to the target, but no specific quota has been allocated to them. Under European law, the Portuguese territory must absorb 1.4 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2030. Portugal is one of the few countries whose plans foresee surpassing this target, by about 12 million tonnes, according to Ecologic and NewClimate Institutes, although the European Commission has concluded that Portugal fell short between 2021 and 2023.
“Considering the potential impact of restoring soil health on lowering global temperatures, not to mention food security and many other benefits, it is shocking that more than 70% of countries have not included it in their climate plans for COP31. This is the world’s premier climate conference. Restoring soil health is a simple way to cool the planet, and it is extremely cost-effective,” said Rico Rau, the lead author of the report and policy analyst at Save Soil.
Portuguese Soils Under Pressure
According to the Court of Auditors, 58% of continental Portugal is susceptible to desertification — a huge potential source of carbon emissions. The situation is dire: this year saw a record 40.3 °C in May, followed by peaks of 43 to 45 °C across the Iberian Peninsula in June, which further dried the country’s soils.
A Solution That Begins as Early as the Next Harvest
Unlike air carbon capture technologies, which remain expensive and scale-limited, regenerative agricultural practices are simple, low-cost, and already available. They include “cover crops” and “crop rotation,” which keep roots alive to feed the soil with carbon; minimal soil disturbance, which prevents that carbon from being released; and planting trees between crops (agroforestry), which adds deep roots and foliage that nourish the soil. Together, these practices can begin to fix CO₂ in the soil by the end of a single farming season.
These practices do not jeopardize yields. A farmer-led study across 78 farms in 14 European countries concluded that regenerative farms achieved 99% of the output of conventional farms, using 62% less synthetic fertilizers and 76% fewer pesticides. Other studies have reported significant gains in productivity with these practices.
A Commitment Without a Plan
Portugal has committed to achieving soil degradation neutrality by 2030, but a 2019 Court of Auditors audit concluded that the National Programme for Combating Desertification lacked concrete actions, timelines, and financing. Portugal does not have a national target for soil carbon. Save Soil argues that the next EU agricultural budget (CAP 2028-2034) should be linked to the new European Directive on Soil Monitoring so that farmers are rewarded for measurable improvements.
“Global temperatures are rising and extreme weather events are placing increasing pressure on crops,” said Praveena Sridhar, Director of Science and Technology at Save Soil. “But healthier soils can significantly help lower global temperatures, retain more water, and make crops more resilient to drought — this summer showed what happens without them. Farmers who measurably improve their soil should be rewarded for it. We need Europe to take the lead on soil health at COP31.”
Thousands of people across Europe have already signed Save Soil’s pledge “Healthy Soil, Healthy Future”.
