The warming of the Mediterranean Sea is fostering the development of intense storms that could compromise the safety and operation of airports across the continent, according to a report by an Italian institute.
“If the Mediterranean continues to warm, it is plausible to expect conditions potentially favorable to the formation of more intense storms, both during the summer and in the autumn and winter months, with an increasing impact on the resilience of airport infrastructure and flight operations,” warns Tommaso Alberti, researcher at the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and lead author of a study on the effect of atmospheric warming.
This investigation, published in the scientific journal “Atmospheric Science Letters,” analyzed a storm that hit Rome’s Fiumicino Airport on December 13, 2024, causing at least eight diversions, delays and holds during roughly three hours of intense convective activity (the upward movement of warm air caused by surface heating).
The researchers compared atmospheric conditions similar to those observed in this event during an earlier period (1979-2000) and a more recent one (2002-2023), and “the results show that the thermodynamic environment in which these configurations occur has changed significantly.”
In the more recent period, air temperatures rose by approximately two degrees Celsius over large parts of Italy, while the surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea rose by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius across much of the basin.
The study also detected variations in wind shear, that is, abrupt and sudden changes in the direction and intensity of the wind, and gusts, as well as a reduction in visibility, “parameters fundamental in crucial phases of flight, such as take-off and landing”.
“The most important result of our work is that the atmospheric configurations that generate these phenomena did not necessarily change, but rather the climatic context in which they occur,” explained Tommaso Alberti.
“A hotter Mediterranean brings greater amounts of heat and humidity to the atmosphere, increasing the energy potentially available for the formation of very intense storms, which can cause heavy rains, strong wind gusts, reduced visibility and other severe weather phenomena.”
The case analyzed in Fiumicino is particularly significant because the storm occurred in December, as the heat accumulated during the summer can persist in the following months, prolonging convection-favorable conditions into autumn and winter.
The negative effects described in the INGV study are significant when these phenomena directly affect a hub airport like Rome’s, since storms, strong winds, torrential rains and reduced visibility can cause diversions and delays, “which, in a network as interconnected as the European one, can spread to other national and international airports”.
This does not mean, the specialists add, that storms will become more frequent everywhere, “but they can occur in an increasingly warm and energetic environment”.
The next step of the investigation will be to broaden this type of analysis to future climate scenarios to understand how severe convection and its impacts on the main connecting hubs of the Mediterranean may evolve.
