The UN established, 33 years ago, the entity responsible for the climate summits, but 30 meetings failed to prevent global warming from surpassing the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels, the central target of the Paris Agreement.
The meetings of the international community also failed to prevent greenhouse gas emissions from continuing to hit record highs each year, temperatures from hitting record highs every year, and extreme weather events from becoming increasingly frequent and intense, as happened this year with the heat in Europe.
Now, starting Monday, the UN, by the hand of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), will once again bring together thousands of people, from technicians to politicians, in Antalya, Turkey for the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), to discuss and decide on climate.
The UNFCCC governs multilateralism in the fight against global warming and created the Conference of the Parties, to seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) caused by human activity, which is warming the planet and changing the climate.
COP31 has as one of its main themes the Turkish proposal to approve the target that electricity represent 35% of global final energy consumption by 2035.
But recent history shows that COPs do not do well with targets. A few weeks ago an UN report assumed that 1.5°C had already been exceeded, the goal that countries had committed not to surpass under the 2015 Paris Agreement. And a warming of 1.8°C is the most optimistic outlook.
The following are the main moments of more than 30 years of targets and promises:
1992, Rio de Janeiro – The first major UN meeting dedicated to concerns and scientific evidence that the Earth is warming and the climate changing very rapidly. The UNFCCC is created. It is decided to hold COPs to update decisions and efforts to control GHG emissions. The Convention does not include emission limits for GHGs, but contemplates the creation of “protocols” that establish these limits.
1995, Berlin – COP1 takes place. Countries commit to more ambitious reductions of greenhouse gas emissions than at the Rio Summit.
1997, Kyoto – COP3 is considered a foundational moment due to the Kyoto Protocol, an international legal treaty that sets limits on emissions of GHG for a set of countries (the most polluting) and creates a carbon market.
2001, Marrakech – At COP7 an agreement on the Kyoto Protocol is reached, but weakened relative to the initial objectives. From the conference also comes a declaration highlighting the link between sustainable development and climate change.
2010, Mexico – COP16. There is a first attempt to create a fund of 100 billion dollars per year to support a “Green Climate Fund.” The Fund would only be approved in 2015 in Paris.
2014 – The European Union approves the binding target of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.
2015, France – COP21. On December 12 the Paris Agreement is signed, considered historic for setting goals to prevent warming from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels, or preferably not exceeding 1.5°C.
Unlike Kyoto, the Paris Agreement does not set emission targets itself, but holds countries accountable for presenting and meeting those targets. They are the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
2017 – Bonn – COP23. The Talanoa Dialogue is launched, aimed at taking stock of countries’ efforts to achieve the targets of carbon neutrality (not emitting more GHG than can be absorbed, notably through forests).
2018 – Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn in a report that, to avoid the worst effects of climate change, the world needs a deep and unprecedented shift and say that the Paris Agreement targets are insufficient.
2019 – The IPCC releases two more reports, both warning of the urgency of unprecedented decisions to avoid a climate catastrophe.
One report on greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use, another on the oceans and the cryosphere. The UN also warns that human action is putting one million animal and plant species at risk of extinction.
The European Commission presents the European Green Deal, to regulate actions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
2020 – The United States, one of the main emitters of GHG, officially leaves the Paris Agreement, a decision of President Donald Trump. They would re-enter with Joe Biden and this year they left again.
2021 – The European Union approves the European Climate Law, which sets the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.
The IPCC releases a new report, stating that the global temperature will exceed 1.5°C by the end of this decade. Since then 1.5°C has already been exceeded several times.
COP26, in Glasgow, maintains the ambition to keep temperature rise within 1.5°C and commits to a gradual reduction in coal use.
2022 – The 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, held in Canada, reached a historic agreement, notably with a commitment to protect 30% of the planet by 2030.
In Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, COP27 concluded with the creation of a future fund on losses and damages and reaffirmed the promise to support the poorest countries in the fight against climate change, with 100 billion dollars yearly. These promises were never fulfilled.
On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine, a war that endures and has caused an energy and economic crisis and with direct and indirect environmental consequences.
Extreme weather events follow one another. In Pakistan 1,700 people died in the largest floods on record.
2023 – Dubai – At COP28, countries agree to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and to triple the capacity of renewable energies by 2030. Fossil fuels remain dominant.
2024 – COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, established a climate finance target of 300 billion dollars per year until 2035 for developing countries. It has not yet been enacted.
2025 – Brazil hosted COP30, the Amazon “lungs of the world.” In the country where the initiative was created by the UN, commitments were pursued. No agreement was reached.
