Global demand for lithium-ion batteries could increase twentyfold by 2050, multiplying by ten the greenhouse gas emissions associated with their production chain. A study led by the University of Melbourne concludes that betting solely on cleaner manufacturing processes will not be enough to curb this growth.
Lithium-ion batteries are fundamental for electric mobility and for energy storage, but their production has a significant climate impact. A study published in the scientific journal One Earth analyzed the evolution of emissions associated with the supply chain of these batteries between 2024 and 2050, considering from the production of raw materials and components to manufacturing and end-of-life treatment.
According to the simulations, the combination of production-side and demand-side measures could reduce the projected cumulative emissions through 2050 by about half: from 19–23 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent to 9–12 billion. In addition to using cleaner electricity, improving industrial processes and recovering materials through recycling, the researchers advocate smaller batteries, longer lifespans, and shared-mobility solutions. These measures could reduce the need to produce new batteries for vehicles and energy storage systems.
The study estimates that measures applied to production could prevent between 3.5 and 4.7 billion tonnes of emissions, while demand-side strategies could contribute a further reduction of 6 to 7 billion tonnes. For Wen Li, associate professor at the University of Melbourne and corresponding author of the work, reducing demand represents “a very significant mitigation opportunity.” The researcher emphasizes that decarbonizing production remains essential, but policy and industry must go beyond regulating process emissions.
The authors also argue that it is important to extend the life of batteries, size them according to needs, and promote their use in a second phase, after they are no longer suitable for the initial application. The issue, they argue, should not be limited to the carbon footprint of each battery, but include the storage capacity actually required to provide the service intended. The team now aims to refine the model to consider regional differences in mining, refining, electricity production, and environmental pressure, as well as to assess whether the same approach could be applied to other clean energy technologies, such as solar panels and wind turbines.
