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SOUTH AFRICA: Confusion over new HIV/AIDS stats

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

JOHANNESBURG, 12 July (PLUSNEWS) - Alarming new HIV/AIDS figures released by the South African Department of Health are likely to cause confusion over the accuracy of earlier official statistics, experts have said.

In its 'HIV and Syphilis Antenatal Sero-prevalence Survey' for 2005, the department said between 6.29 million and 6.57 million people had been infected with HIV by 2004 - far higher than the recent 4.5 million estimate given by Statistics SA, the state statistics agency.

Professor Rob Dorrington, head of the Centre for Actuarial Science at the University of Cape Town, said the department's new estimates were "undoubtedly too high".

He told the local Business Day newspaper: "Is it any wonder the public is confused when the same government offers estimates that differ by between 2 million and 2.5 million?"

The health department attributed the variation in the figures to differences in methodology: the department follows methodology developed by the United Nations, while Statistics SA "was still trying to refine (its) methodology", the department's head of health monitoring and evaluation, Dr Lindiwe Makubalo, was quoted as saying.

According to the report, 29.4 percent of pregnant women attending state-run clinics last year were HIV-positive, up from 27.9 percent in 2003.

"This suggests that although HIV prevalence has tended towards stabilisation in recent years, there is still a minor increase," the report noted.

Women in their late 20s and early 30s were the worst affected, with almost 40 percent of those aged between 25 and 29 years being found to be HIV positive.

The annual survey of pregnant women receiving antenatal care in the public sector is an important indicator of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the general South African population.

[ENDS]