The El Niño phenomenon is “firmly established” and is expected to intensify further in the coming months, reaching a “very strong” intensity with a probability “nearly 100%” of lasting until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization warned today.
“El Niño has established itself firmly and will intensify, becoming a very strong phenomenon in the coming months, with significant repercussions on temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as on the associated risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat,” warns a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
It is expected that the phenomenon “will intensify even more in the coming months, reaching a very strong intensity before peaking at the end of 2026,” the WMO also warns.
Moreover, the organization underscores that the latest seasonal forecasts from the WMO’s global production centers indicate an “exceptionally high probability” of nearly 100% that El Niño persists until February 2027.
The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, warned of the intensification in the coming months of the El Niño phenomenon, highlighting that the world lives in a state of “high risk” with extreme weather events.
“The science is unequivocal: the planet is entering uncharted waters, and those waters are warming. Sea surface temperatures are reaching record levels, thermometers keep rising and we find ourselves in a high-risk zone where extreme weather events are becoming the new normal,” said Guterres in a statement.
António Guterres stressed that “this exceptional El Niño event requires an exceptional preparation and response.”
“There is no time to lose. A race against time between rising risks and our determination to act against climate change and protect people is underway. It is a race that we must win,” he said.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that repeats every two to seven years. The surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific begin to warm in spring, leading to major changes in wind, pressure and precipitation patterns around the world in the following months.
Sea surface temperatures in this region of the equatorial Pacific are already well above average and continue to rise.
Temperatures were, on average, 1.5 degrees above normal between May and July 2026, rising to two degrees above normal in July, according to the WMO, which also notes readings of 2.2 degrees to 2.6 degrees above the average from late July to mid-August, “which demonstrates the continued strengthening of the phenomenon”.
Beneath the ocean surface, ocean temperatures were more than 0.8 degrees above the average in some areas during July and early August.
Although each El Niño is different, the phenomenon has historically caused or intensified droughts and fire risks in parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted the monsoon in India and brought torrential rains to East Africa.
This phenomenon adds to climate changes caused by human activities, exacerbating extreme weather events.
For the period September to November this year, the WMO forecasts indicate an increased probability of above-average temperatures across almost all land masses, as well as precipitation patterns consistent with a strong and classic atmospheric response to an intense Pacific El Niño.
In the year following El Niño, the heat stored in the ocean is released to the atmosphere, generally contributing to higher global temperatures, leading many climate scientists to forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record.
The hottest year on record to date is 2024, after the last El Niño.
