IRIN Web Special on the Togo elections

Lome 27 May (IRIN) - Locked in a room at the University of Lome and whispering so that curious ears do not overhear their conversation, two economists and a law professor described Togo as a decaying country where the state has failed the people for too long.

President Gnassingbe Eyadema has ruled this small West African country of five million people with rod or iron since coming to power in a 36 years ago. He is now the longest-serving African leader - beating Gabon's President Omar Bongo by 10 months.

"He is a weight on the country and he rules it as if it were a clan," the law professor said with a sigh.

Gilchrist Olympio, Togo's main opposition leader, has been barred from standing against Eyadema in presidential elections on 1 June and few expect that any of the remaining six opposition candidates will shift him from power.

But Togo's mainly agricultural economy is stagnating, the country has been starved of European Union (EU) aid because of its poor human rights record and the pressure for change is building up.

Many in Lome draw a comparison with Cote d'Ivoire, whose failure to manage political change following the death of President Felix Houphouet Boigny after 33 years in power, resulted in a civil war that has split the country in half.

Diplomats and opposition politicians question how long the army and Togo's restless unemployed youth will allow Eyadema to stay in power if he rigs the election in his favour.

"Togo's greatest ill is the current regime and a change in Togolese society starts with a change in regime," said Jean-Pierre Fabre, secretary general of Olympio's Union of Forces for Change (UFC).

"I fear that this time if there are problems again things could blow up," he added. "By allowing frustrations to build up you make situations explode. Togolese are no different from Ivorians. If you push them to the brink, they will react," Fabre noted that Togo's youth feel particularly disenfranchised and impatient.

Although Eyadema has brought stability to this former French colony and has always enjoyed strong political support from Paris, he has presided over a long period of economic stagnation - particularly since the EU cut off aid to his government in 1993.

"The Togolese are thirsty for change," said a philosophy professor at one Lome college. "What can he do in another five years that he was not able to do in 36?" he added. "It is not now that he will begin to change things."

One senior economist who works for an international organisation in Togo, said the country was now at a crossroads. It could either reform and progress, like neighbouring Benin, or slide into chaos, like Haiti.

At first glance, Lome looks no different from the capital of other West African nation. School-age girls and boys sell mangoes, bananas, newspapers and bottled water on the streets. Amongst adults there is the usual clash between those wearing colourful flowing African robes and those in more sobre European attire. Senior government officials and foreign diplomats whizz past in expensive cars. Its port is even enjoying a new burst of activity handling goods from Niger and Burkina Faso that went mainly through Abidjan until civil war broke out in Cote d'Ivoire last year.

But behind this bustling facade lies a deep economic malaise. Critics of Eyadema point to the degradation of schools and hospitals and the pay arrears owed to many civil servants. For those who cannot get a government job, there are few other opportunities for employment.

One economist at Lome University told IRIN that in an average family of 10, at least six people work in the informal sector of the economy. In practice that means selling food, cigarettes, paper tissues and other cheap consumer items on the roadside.

Togo was originally colonized by Germany, but was handed over to French rule after World War One. It achieved independence in 1960 and Eyadema set up a one-party state soon after seizing power as an army colonel seven years later. He made a reluctant conversion to multi-party democracy in the early 1990s. Opposition leaders were allowed to challenge him for the presidency for the first time in 1993 and again in 1998.

However, few are confident that this third ballot will be free and fair.

Eyadema, 67, changed the constitution in December 2002 so that he could stand for another five-year term. And at the last minute Olympio was banned from standing against him on the grounds of administrative irregularities in his nomination papers.

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