EGYPT: Focus on upcoming election

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

CAIRO, 2 Sep 2005 (IRIN) - The streets of Egypt are filling up with election banners, mostly supporting the incumbent President Hosni Mubarak, as campaigning for the first ever contested election reaches a climax.

On 4 September, candidates will hold their final rallies, before observing a three-day break in campaigning on the eve of the 7 September presidential elections.

The past week saw candidates criss-crossing the country, delivering speeches and presenting their policies to voters throughout the country.

NOUR’S JOURNEY SOUTH

The most dramatic journey was the whistle stop train tour of Ayman Nour, the candidate of the liberal Ghad Party, and one of Mubarak’s most prominent competitiors.

Nour took buses and trains deep into Egypt’s south, a part of the country traditionally ignored by the wealthier capital city and Delta region.

The Ghad Party held a series of rallies and marches in the towns of Minya, Assiut, Edfu, Kom Ombo and finally Aswan. According to observers, there were large turnouts in the heavily Nubian areas around Kom Ombo and Aswan.

Nour rallies were announced by trucks equipped with loud speakers announcing the arrival of Nour who “comes by train, not by plane” – a reference to Mubarak’s preferred method of visiting the south for short stops.

Nour’s speeches focused on the economic problems in the country and what he described as the government’s history of broken promises. There was also a strong focus on government corruption.
In more informal meetings on the street in various cities, Nour also discussed local problems and issues.

MUBARAK’S MESSAGE

The Mubarak campaign visited Upper Egypt as well, with a 29 August campaign stop in Assiut. The president brushed over the main themes of his campaign, including industrial and agricultural reform as well as promises of increased political participation in his next term.

Significantly for Upper Egypt, though, was his acknowledgement of the disparities in development that have taken place. According to UNDP’s 2004 Egypt Human Development report, development in the south has significantly lagged behind the north. Per capita incomes in some southern provinces are a third that of Cairo.

The president promised new schools and hospitals as well as investment so that the two halves of the country would “move forward in tandem” once more.

He also addressed the nationwide housing shortage in several campaign stops during the week, promising to change the laws governing the building of houses so that young people could more easily start families. In Egyptian culture, a man can often not marry until he can offer the bride an apartment.

“I know finding appropriate housing represents an obstacle to many of our youth,” he told several thousand supporters in Assiut. “I feel for their problems.”

EFFECTIVE ADS

The campaign of the historic Wafd Party and its candidate Noman Gomaa, the other main competitor for Mubarak, saw significantly fewer campaign stops than the others. The campaign, however, has been buoyed by an effective advertising campaign focusing on the country’s problems.

The print campaign, which has appeared in most of the country’s major newspapers, both state-owned and independent, began with the evocative phrase “we’ve had it!” The advertisement then laid out the major complaints of the people, including rising prices, corruption and unemployment.

The second installment of the campaign went under the banner, “we’re suffocating” which further elaborated the problems with the regime, including lack of democracy.
In the final days of the campaign, the slogan has now changed to “the demands” as the Wafd then put forward its candidate as a solution to the problems outlined in previous ads.

While the Wafd’s Gomaa lacks the charisma of Nour, the party has massive advantages in funding, reporting over US $1 million for its campaign war chest, which is equal to that of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Most of their funds have gone to print and media political advertisements. Advertising for Nour’s campaign has been minimal.

THE ISSUE OF TURNOUT

One of the biggest concerns of the elections have not been who will win the contests, which most see as a foregone conclusion in favour of the incumbent, but whether people will come out and vote.

According to the NDP, turnout for parliamentary elections in 2000 was only 20 percent. Traditionally people don’t vote—or even apply for the necessary voting card. Candidates have been encouraging people in various speeches to buck this trend and get out and vote.

Privately, NDP officials admit that a turnout of just 40 percent would be seen as a major victory.

In the 25 May referendum on the amendment of the constitution to allow contested presidential elections, the Interior Ministry reported a 53 percent turnout.

Critics have cast doubt on that figure and a report released by the Judges’ Club said that just a cursory review of various polling stations revealed a turnout of around 3 percent.

In the 2000 parliamentary elections, security forces often prevented voters expected to choose opposition candidates.

For his part, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif announced that security forces have been ordered to exhibit “maximum restraint” during elections. So far during the campaign, there have been no clashes with security.

Voting will begin at 8am local time on 7 September and end at 8pm, with voting conducted at 9,737 auxiliary polling stations, which will then report to 329 primary stations. If voters go to a polling station where their name is registered, they will only need their identity card, but if they go to a more distant polling station, they will have to produce their voting card.

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