ZIMBABWE: Regional bodies lack clout to end crisis, say analysts

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

JOHANNESBURG, 19 Aug 2005 (IRIN) - The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) lack the leverage to resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe, leaving South Africa as the only 'player' with enough clout to force a resolution, say analysts.

President Robert Mugabe this week rejected an offer by Joaquim Chissano, the AU envoy and former Mozambican president, to mediate talks with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a bid to resolve the country's political deadlock.

Despite calls by civil society groups, the SADC avoided making any pronouncements on Zimbabwe during its annual summit in Gaborone this week.

John Stremlau, head of the department of international relations at South Africa's University of the Witwatersrand, said both the SADC and the AU lacked the capacity to deal with Zimbabwe's crises.

He believed only South Africa could make any real progress on Zimbabwe, where the opposition has charged that the government has been rigging key elections since 2000, and the authorities have been accused of human rights abuses.

South Africa was currently negotiating the terms of a loan to bail out Zimbabwe, which faced expulsion from the International Monetary Fund; among the conditions reportedly attached to the loan were talks with the MDC.

"What we are seeing play out now - regarding conditionalities around the bail-out loan - has to happen quietly and confidentially, but it would be very good if the AU and SADC would follow the lead of [US President] George Bush on this: defer to the neighbour [South Africa] to try to work with the Zimbabwean government and people to resolve this issue," Stremlau said.

"Because the situation in Zimbabwe is getting quite desperate ... it's now time to rally around South Africa, which has the real leverage - it's the only player in this mix that has substantial and real influence - and how South Africa has played it is very delicate and complex. I think [South African President Thabo] Mbeki is trying his best," he commented.

Chris Maroleng, senior researcher in the African Security Analysis programme of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa, said although Zimbabwe was not on the formal agenda of the SADC summit, this "does not mean that there are no initiatives going on within the organisation".

"I believe the fact that Botswana's President, Festus Mogae, is taking over as chair of the subregional body will add impetus to ongoing attempts to broker some kind of resolution, as Mogae is seen to be in alliance with South Africa and Mozambique in their attempts to resolve the crisis," Maroleng noted.

South Africa, the SADC and the AU had "faced several difficulties in their attempts to resolve the crisis", but he believed a significant shift had been signalled by the AU's engagement with Zimbabwe.

"The AU has indicated a political will, at the highest level, to engage the question of Zimbabwe, [as evidenced by] the appointment of Chissano; it indicates that there's a possibility of greater initiatives being pushed by him [Chissano] as special envoy of the AU. The recent setback [Mugabe refusing to talk to the MDC] does not indicate an end to Chissano's attempts to broker an inter-party dialogue," Maroleng added.

Brian Raftopoulous, professor of development studies at the University of Zimbabwe, told IRIN the AU and SADC policy "of outwardly showing solidarity with Mugabe, while putting pressure on him behind closed doors, has failed".

"Mugabe feels there's no reason for him to engage with the opposition, as he feels they've become less relevant as a force, and my sense is he will hold on and try and get the terms he wants from those trying to bring a resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis. Mugabe will not go into dialogue if he feels he's going to give up substantive power," Raftopoulous reasoned.

He said the AU and SADC had failed to put "sufficient pressure on Mugabe to recognise the deepening crisis that's taking place in Zimbabwe, and that he's a central part of that problem - they have all along given him a certain succour".

But Maroleng believed that Mugabe's steadfast refusal to engage the MDC had seen him "paint himself into a corner" in his dealings with South Africa, SADC and the AU.

He said it was time for "the leadership of our continent to urge Mugabe to reconsider his position, given the impending humanitarian crisis in that country - which will be on an unprecedented level, given that there is already a serious food security situation in Zimbabwe".

However, Raftopoulous noted that, should Mugabe reject the terms of the South African loan, Mbeki would "do what he usually does: step back and wait until a new crisis develops that presents a new opportunity for him to intervene, while maintaining this image of solidarity" with Mugabe.

In his weekly letter on the African National Congress party's website on Friday, Mbeki referred to the "protracted controversies that have engulfed Zimbabwe over the last few years", and said a "stable and prosperous Zimbabwe is critical to the integration of the SADC region", in view of the country's economic potential.

"As members of SADC we must be ready and willing to work closely together, understanding that we share a common destiny," Mbeki observed. "It means that all of us must understand that what we do in any one of our countries has an impact on the rest; it means that, as countries, we will sink or swim together."

[ENDS]