ETHIOPIA: Mixed signals ahead of Somali region poll

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

ADDIS ABABA, 19 Aug 2005 (IRIN) - Ethiopia's remote, desert-like eastern Somali region has suffered years of conflict and political instability, and is gripped with tension ahead of Sunday's polls.

Some 1.5 million people are preparing to elect representatives for 23 federal and 168 regional seats, after a campaign marked by distrust between rival political groups.

All opposition groups - which had fielded 77 federal candidates - have pulled out of the election citing intimidation and fraud, leaving the door open for the Somali People's Democratic Party (SPDP), which is allied to the national ruling party, to sweep the field.

In the run up to the vote, violence has increased, with five people killed in a series of grenade attacks in the region's capital, Jijiga, in July. Officials said the attacks were designed to derail the elections.

Analysts have also raised questions over the relevance of the ballot, given that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has already secured a majority of 296 seats in the 547-seat parliament.

A further 20 seats are held by Meles' political allies.

Indeed, the Ethiopian media has shown little interest in the polls. Few Ethiopian journalists said they would travel the difficult 700 km to Jijiga to cover the elections.

COMPLEX COMMUNITY

Somali region - with a population of four million - is a community with complex cultural structures, where important social decisions are largely left to the elders.

There are three main clans, the largest being the Ogaden, although political power currently rests with the Issa, a factor that has been a source of irritation and tension.

Elections through democratic institutions often play second fiddle to the clan system, with political parties campaigning through those indigenous governance structures rather than the better-known methods of door-to-door canvassing or the soapbox.

According to political analyst Medhane Tadesse, elections have failed to address the underlying cause of instability in the region - namely an ongoing conflict between the state and the armed secessionist rebel group, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF).

Both the government and the ONLF have shown interest in a truce, but as yet there have been no public announcements that indicate any progress, and the ONLF are not contesting the elections.

The chaos in neighbouring Somalia, which shares a 1,600 km border with Ethiopia and has remained effectively stateless for the last 14 years, also has a spill over effect.

"Unless the inter-clan issues; the corruption, insurgency and instability and spill over from Somalia are addressed, the region's problems will not be resolved," Medhane said.

If the SPDP take all 23 seats, as most analysts expect, they would be the second largest party in the federal parliament; only the EPRDF would have more seats.

LITTLE INTEREST

Western diplomats say interest in the outcome has waned, although the European Union and the Carter Centre will be fielding observers.

"Somali region was considered to be important when the [national election] results looked a lot closer, but right now it is proving less of a politically determining factor," a diplomat monitoring the polls said.

"The withdrawal of the opposition also means this is less of an election than we expected, even though much of the power base in Somali region is determined through the clans and clan structures," he added.

The chairman of the SPDP, Mohamed Dirir, insists the elections are crucial for the future development of the region, which is largely inhabited by nomadic groups that eke out a living through livestock.

He rejected the notions of apathy among voters, whose government for the next five years has already been decided.

"This is a very important election for the Somali National Regional State as it is for all the people of Ethiopia," Dirir said. "This is a moment when the Somali people are very conscious of their rights and place within the federal framework."

However, he acknowledged that voters were aware that the ruling party had extended its 14-year grip on power, a fact that will likely benefit his party.

"Somalis are very rational people, they are very pragmatic. We understand that the EPRDF has already won the elections at the national government," he said.

Dirir, who is the federal government's minister of mines, added that these elections would play a role in "building a bridge" between the traditional tribal political structures and western democracy.

"There is a mix of western democratic style and of the democratic trends in the pastoral lifestyle - we are combining our culture and modern democracy and at this juncture this is very important for us," he said.

He added: "These elections will enhance the national consensus, it will enhance the national unity of the Somalis and this will be translated in terms of realising further development in the region and to settle our differences in a rational manner."

However, opposition groups disagree, and announced earlier this week they were boycotting the election, claiming their supporters were being discriminated against.

Opposition leaders claimed thousands of voter cards had already gone missing.

"If the elections were free and fair then it would have a positive impact for the region, it would help with the stability, which in turn would facilitate development," Joseph Nur, vice chairman of the Western Somali Democratic Party, said.

"But the conditions are not right that would allow us to campaign," he added. "We joined the campaign because the European Union and Carter Centre told us they would be free and fair but it is not.

"Somali region has remained backward and undeveloped for the last 14 years. There are no roads or health facilities, hospitals have been closed down and schools are empty. For the last 14 years people are suffering."

SMOOTH VOTE EXPECTED

The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia said they believed the vote would go smoothly.

Local election observers had been elected by tribal chiefs, the head registrar at the election board, Mekonnen Wondimu, said.

He said mobile registration centres had ensured that nomadic groups would also be included in the vote, the results of which are due to be announced on 5 September.

"We have had complaints from some opposition parties wanting additional time for candidate registration, which we granted," he said. "Other than that it is going smoothly."

Some observers, however, said the signs were not good.

Results from elections elsewhere in the country were beset by mammoth delays, claims of fraud and the death of at least 36 people, allegedly gunned down by security forces.

Re-runs in 31 disputed constituencies will take place on the same day the Somali region goes to the polls.

Previous elections in Somali region have been characterised by chaos.

During local elections last year, the Ethiopian Human Rights Council reported that children voted and police rounded up opposition members.

"In view of all the defects and malpractices observed prior to and on the election day, it is hard to say the election was free and fair," the council said of the January 2004 poll.

[ENDS]