KYRGYZSTAN: Focus on major players ahead of presidential polls

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

BISHKEK, 27 Apr 2005 (IRIN) - The current political agenda in Kyrgyzstan, where opposition-led protesters overthrew the regime of former president Askar Akayev in March, is dominated by upcoming presidential elections in early July.

TWO KEY FIGURES RUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENCY

Several political leaders have announced that they will run for the presidency, but most observers believe that the contest will be between two leaders; prime minister, acting president and leader of the National Movement of Kyrgyzstan (NMK), Kurmanbek Bakiev, who was among those who led the protests that toppled Akayev's regime on 24 March and the head of the Ar-Namys political party, Felix Kulov, who was jailed under Akayev for more than four years.

"The political struggle between different [political] groups is caused by the upcoming presidential elections," Marat Kazakbaev, political analyst and coordinator of the Citizens Against Corruption NGO, told IRIN in the capital Bishkek.

"The country's political world divides into several groupings, but the strongest groups belong to those of Kulov and Bakiev. The political battle for presidency rests between them," Kazakbaev added.

Bakiev was appointed prime minister and thus acting president by the new parliament following the ouster of Akayev from power. Immediately after coming to power Bakiev said he would run for the top job.

Bakiev, a prime minister under Akayev, and his team, are campaigning to fight against corruption and nepotism at the governmental level, as well as tackling social injustice. The group's main support base is the poor and that part of the intelligentsia who were deeply dissatisfied under the previous regime.

Politics in Kyrgyzstan are fairly clan and region-based. Political observers say Bakiev represents southern elites, who felt they were left out during Akayev's rule, while Kulov, who is originally from the north, has strong support in that region.

Kulov, a former security general, vice-president and governor, was jailed on corruption and embezzlement charges in 2001 that many international organisations said were politically motivated. The ex-head of the security ministry was released from jail the day the regime fell and put in charge of security bodies to restore order in the capital. The country's judiciary has acquitted Kulov of the embezzlement charges, paving the way for his participation in the presidential elections on 10 July.

On Monday, he announced he would stand for the president's office in July. "I have a strong belief that I should run for the presidency," he told journalists in Bishkek. Kulov prioritises stabilisation of the current political situation, providing security and preventing an exodus of the country's diminishing Russian-speaking minority.

Along with Kulov and Bakiev, several other candidates announced they would run for the country's top job. Among them is Jenishbek Nazaraliev, a doctor specialising in the treatment of alcohol and drug addiction, who was once an active opposition supporter during Akayev's reign. Nurbek Turdukulov, a deputy minister under Akayev's last government and currently top manager of the country's only GSM operator Bitel, which had alleged links to Akayev's family, has also indicated he would run.

PRO-AKAYEV SUPPORTERS

Supporters of deposed president Akayev are also participating through the Alga, Kyrgyzstan political party, described as a pro-Akayev or family party given that Akayev's daughter Bermet played an important role in its founding. The party became known for its widespread use of "dirty" methods during the parliamentary elections in February and March, which initially sparked the protests that overthrew the former president.

Some believe that the group is silently undermining the new authorities, having a vested interest in the failure of the new government and in promoting nostalgia among some for the former regime. Although they have not publicised their platform, some reports suggest that their main motto is: "The former regime was not that bad, at least, it was maintaining stability in the country."

Their support base comes from a considerable number of government employees and officials, and representatives of the middle class, in other words those who had a good life under the former regime. The supporters of the group include part of the intelligentsia, senior officials nominated and patronised by Akayev, who managed to concentrate substantial resources in their hands.

CRIMINAL GROUPS VYING FOR INFLUENCE

Another element influencing the political scene, local analysts say, is semi-criminal groups, with their vested business interests. Sania Sagnayeva, an expert with the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank in Bishkek, told IRIN that during the change of power in some instances criminal elements were active in the first stage of affairs to drive politicians to secondary roles.

Earlier this month, a group of experienced police officers in the south sent an appeal to the country's new leadership complaining about a "groundless and unjustified" change of staff within government offices, including the police, with those having alleged links with criminal groups.

A senior police official in the southern province of Osh, who did not want to be identified, told IRIN that the criminal groups were trying to establish control over financial flows and drug trafficking in the region. Southern Kyrgyzstan lies on one of the major drug-trafficking routes from Afghanistan to Russia and western Europe.

"Not less than one-third of posts within administrative offices in the region might fall into the hands of semi-criminal groups, allegedly presenting themselves as active members of the revolutionary events," Salima Sharipova, a prominent female public figure in the region, told IRIN in Osh.

Fear of possible control by pro-criminal groups in the administrative bodies, according to local NGOs, is a growing concern and a major worry for ordinary citizens. The platform that these groups are presenting is power of the people at all the levels, especially at the local level. But observers claim that their real motives are to secure their interests by controlling key posts in the government.

Analysts say these groups have found backing among the unemployed and the poor, aspiring for social justice and fairness. The group also relies on young people who depend on these groups and therefore have a vested interest in their bosses' success.

EXPECTATIONS OF PEOPLE ON THE STREETS

Ordinary people say the issue of stability remains paramount after the euphoria of the revolution has waned.

"It is good that the corrupt family and clan-based regime has gone. But the new government is facing a severe shortage of time. The initial euphoria is diminishing and people are questioning what has been achieved," Sadyrbay, 64, a local pensioner in the southern city of Osh, told IRIN. "If there is no stability in the coming several months and people do not see tangible results from the regime change, the new authorities will lose all credit."

"Nobody regrets that Akayev is gone, but the new authorities have shown their inability to tackle the challenges lying ahead of them. People need to see that real change is taking place," Almaz, a university student in Bishkek, told IRIN.

But others were less optimistic. "One corrupt government official replaced the outgoing one and that is all," Zakirbek, a 49-year-old teacher, told IRIN, pessimistically.

"The new government turned out to be very soft, while they need to be tough during this difficult period," Alymbai, another teacher from Osh, told IRIN. "As you see, some people have started to illegally occupy land, mobs change one official after another. They need to put an end to that lack of authority, otherwise the country will fall into chaos and civil conflict. We do not want to even imagine the consequences of such a scenario," he warned.

Meanwhile, there is growing interest in emigration and leaving the country altogether, especially among the Russian minority. "First of all, the new authorities have not clearly proclaimed their position towards minorities. This uncertainty makes people want to run away. Secondly, the looting of businesses, shops and companies has led to the unemployment of Russians in the city," Valerii Vishnevskii, chairman of the Slavic Fund, a local civic group to tackle the problems of the Russian minority, told IRIN in Bishkek.

Anatoliy Klyus, head of the Russian cultural association, Commonwealth, in Osh, said that ethnic minorities were concerned over a lack of substantive authority and the administration's inefficiency.

Ethnic minority groups expect solid measures from the new authorities to stabilise the situation and establish a clear ethnic policy, Adyljan Abidov, head of the local Civic Initiatives Support Centre NGO, told IRIN in Osh, adding that ethnic minorities were also interested in whether representatives from these groups would be able to take part in the new government.

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