IRIN Web Special on Nigeria

More Nigerians living in poverty

Data collected by the National Planning Commission and the United Nations Children's Fund shows that the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty increased under the civilian government. Yet the government has been in office at a time when high global oil prices ensured high inflows of revenue. Promises to end perennial electricity outages and fuel scarcity, a national embarrassment for a country hugely endowed in energy resources, have failed to materialise.

A late entrant to politics, Obasanjo did not have - prior to his win in 1993 - any established political structures of his own that could give him the leverage needed to bring about any fundamental changes, analysts say. Forced to borrow existing structures of vested interest groups to capture presidential power, he apparently became a captive of these powerful interests, unable to leave the political straightjacket he was required to don.

"The last four years have seen Obasanjo battling to emerge from being a hostage of powerful political forces," said political analyst Ike Onyekwere.

The manifestations of this struggle to assert himself politically included a protracted conflict between the executive and the legislature, even though the ruling PDP has an overwhelming majority in both houses of parliament. Within four years there were three senate presidents and two speakers of the house of representatives as Obasanjo and his opponents in both chambers engaged in a bitter power struggle.

Even the president's political life was at stake after the legislature in August 2002 gave him 14 days to resign or face impeachment proceedings, alleging several constitutional breaches by Obasanjo. A beleaguered Obasanjo eventually accepted the mediation of former civilian president Shehu Shagari and former military ruler Gen Yakubu Gowon, to get the legislators to back down and save the country from several months of political uncertainty.

"This effort to assert himself over members of his party and create a political machinery of his own consumed most of the president's first term and left him no breath to execute any concrete development programme," said Onyekwere.

Nigerian governments are too big

Many analysts also believe that Nigeria's tradition of running big governments at both federal and state levels will need to be dispensed with if any significant funds are ever to be realised for genuine development projects that impact positively on the lives of the majority.

"About 80 percent of the entire government revenue is spent on the administrative costs of government at federal, state and local government levels, with only 20 percent left for capital development projects," economist Tunde Akinrele told IRIN. "No country can achieve meaningful development in such a situation."

According to the analyst the president's cabinet alone comprises nearly 60 ministers and junior ministers. In addition he has more than 400 special advisers, senior special assistants and special assistants. "Considering that all these people also have their own special assistants, personal assistants and secretarial staff, you can then imagine the waste," Akinrele said.

By the third year of the current democratic experiment, re-election had engaged most of the energy and attention of politicians. Many who had witnessed the performance or non-performance of the officeholders were also determined to upstage them. Thus was the stage set for what has so far been a bloody confrontation, with political violence spiralling.

Much of the ethnic, communal and religious violence of the preceding three years have dovetailed with the violence of political thugs and assassins, filling most Nigerians with premonitions about what to expect from the vote. The government has acknowledged that the increasing political violence, if unchecked, could scuttle the country's current democratic experiment and bring back the military. Obasanjo has also promised to do everything possible to make sure the polls are peaceful.

In the words of Onyekwere: "There is an awareness among Nigerians that if this election goes well it will be a step towards lasting democracy and that if it goes terribly it could spell doom for the existence of the country. What remains to be seen is whether the politicians share the same apprehension."

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