NAIROBI, 5 July (IRIN) - While the Horn of Africa region struggles to recover from last year's prolonged drought, there is concern that Somalia - one of the countries where emergency intervention was not needed at the time - is facing a tough year ahead. The failure of the main seasonal rains in the agricultural belt in southern Somalia has triggered concern over a potential food crisis by the end of the year. Last month, the World Food Programme (WFP) put out an urgent appeal for 20,000 mt of relief food to allow the agency to position vital supplies over the next 12 months. Kevin Farrell, WFP Country Director for Somalia, has just visited Merca, Lower Shebelle, and the southern Bay Region, and talked to IRIN about why there is worry about a poor harvest.

Question: How serious is the failure of rains?

Answer: The situation is that the main Gu seasonal rains in Bay, Bakol and Gedo, as well as other parts of southern Somalia, have failed, and the predictions at this point are that the harvest in that area will be but a fraction of last year's - and indeed well below the average for recent years. Incidentally, the area I am speaking of is one which had a good harvest in 2000. Certainly Bay and Bakol had an above average output, although Gedo somewhat less so... That was a time when problems were at their most acute regionally, particularly in Ethiopia in Gode, Shebelle river valley, much of the Ogaden, and northern Kenya.

Question: How are people coping at the moment?

A: The full impact of this drought has yet to be felt, since the harvest is not due until late July. But one can certainly see from the standing crop - or what is left of it - that in most of the rainfed areas there is going to be very little to harvest. I saw people cutting down their sorghum and maize stalks to use as fodder for their animals.

There are also some indications of the beginnings of population movement... That is a standard coping mechanism. When people see the rains have failed and they are not going to have much of a harvest, and they have livestock to feed, they try to move to areas where they can graze their animals or get employment. And they move considerable distances. Water is another trigger, and the water supplies throughout the south are very low indeed.

It's mainly the pastoral population who are taking their animals for better grazing, as well as people simply looking for employment. Of course, I am not speaking of massive numbers of people yet, but certainly some have started moving out, mainly to Lower Shabelle and Mogadishu.... Employment opportunities in these areas are not very good.

There is no doubt that some people - the better off - do have food stocks available. We know that one rain failure does not spell crisis for everyone, and I did see some homesteads with good underground food stores. But it is very difficult to say how much they have or how long the food will last. If people get no harvest at the end of July, then those stocks are going to disappear over the next few months.

Q: In terms of getting food into the region, is insecurity a factor?

A: It's always a factor when you are dealing with food, quite frankly, so you could never say insecurity is not a issue. But if you are asking me now, can I move food from Merca-Mogadishu to Bay and Bakol? - yes I can. But insecurity is always at least a potential problem in parts of Somalia.

Q: Has it yet reached a stage where you are distributing relief food?

A: No, not yet... We are preparing for what I believe is that probability....[by] continuing to assess and monitor the situation, particularly to identify the main areas where we are likely to need to intervene later in the year.

Q: WFP put out a strong statement recently, saying it was vital to get food in place. Has there been any response to that?

A: What we said in the statement at the end of May is that it was already evident that these major rains had failed, and that we needed to get pledges of food assistance if we are going to be able to meet the needs in the later part of this year. Right now, I know we do not have enough food in the pipeline to respond at the level I expect [it] will be needed. So I said we need to mobilise food resources now. It has to be understood that WFP and other food aid agencies need time to prepare to get food into the pipeline.

So far the response has not been particularly encouraging. I know there may be a certain "donor fatigue" after last years regional drought, but I would like to hope that donors will find the wherewithal to respond positively and as soon as possible to Somalia.

Q: Did the emergency operation in neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya spill into Somalia in any way last year?

A: Yes, to a degree, though I've never quite been able to quantify the extent of the spillover. Along border areas in particular, there was a certain amount of food coming into Somalia. At times, that was quite significant, but it was what one might expect given the fact that the area affected was the Somali region of Ethiopia, the Ogaden, where most people are ethnically Somalis. There was also some movement of people from the Somali side searching for food, and goods. On the plus side, that certainly helped to make more food available in Somalia over the past few months.

Q: So this year the focus needs to shift to Somalia?

A: Yes, we believe there is a now a special need to respond on Somalia, both in terms of food and in other sectors such as water and health services.

What we've been pointing out is that there are at least two major elements in Somalia now that have changed since a year ago. One is the rain failure, particularly in the south, and the other is the livestock export ban, which was imposed by many Gulf countries in September last. The livestock ban is hitting the north more acutely, because there people are more dependent on the trade. In the south, people can still sell livestock - mainly across the border, in Kenya. However, there are indications coming in now that livestock prices are falling quite sharply in the south, and that cereal prices are going up, both of which would confirm what I am saying - that we can expect to see acute food shortages in the next few months.