EAST AFRICA: Food insecurity still critical

NAIROBI, 24 October (IRIN) - As the UN marked World Food Day last week, international organisations noted that five million people remain highly food insecure in the East African countries of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

All three countries figure in the most deprived group contained in the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)'s report, State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI). The focus of the SOFI report on the per person food deficit has brought to light the disparity between sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world. Whilst there are more chronically hungry people in Asia, the depth of hunger is greatest in sub-Saharan Africa.

Drought in the eastern and western districts of Kenya continues to affect the level of livestock mortalities. Markets have collapsed in the worst hit areas and the livelihood of pastoralists will be threatened if the coming rainy season fails. Weather forecasts for the coming months have been revised. They are more favourable for the eastern part of the country, but remain below average for the severely-affected pastoralist and agro-pastoralists in the west. The ministry of agriculture and development has indicated a 40 percent downfall in maize production for the 2000 harvest season compared to average production in the 1990's. USAID's Food and Early Warning System (FEWS) has urged aid organisations to focus on the western pastoral districts of Kenya in the coming weeks.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), donor response has been encouraging but the need for food aid keeps growing. An additional 700,000 people have been affected since the United Nations launched an appeal in June targeting 2.2 million people. It is difficult to estimate the effect of the coming rain season. Though rainfall would be positive for livestock, its effect on maize production - the staple crop - would be minor as far more rain would be required for a good harvest, a WFP spokeswoman told IRIN.

In neighbouring Tanzania, 1.3 million people are currently suffering from food insecurity, WFP pointed out. Food availability and access at household level is fairly satisfactory, except for the region stretching from central to north Tanzania and areas to the south and east of Lake Victoria.

It is feared that livestock-dependent populations in northern and south eastern Tanzania may suffer increasing food insecurity as weather forecasts for the short rainy season remain below normal. The implications of a below normal 'vuli' season would vary by area, a FEWS spokesman told IRIN. Worst-affected would be northern Tanzania and parts of the Lake Victoria area, where a fourth consecutive poor 'vuli' season would exacerbate food insecurity. In the central and southern areas of Tanzania, where the agricultural season commences later, below-normal rainfalls before December would delay the start of the season but would be unlikely to reduce yields significantly. Staple food prices are low compared to previous seasons, and WFP is finalising an emergency aid operation for the people of northern Tanzania.

As the harvest begins, access to food is improving in the highly food insecure districts of Kotido and Moroto in northeastern Uganda. This will however only temporarily alleviate supply shortages, FEWS said. Crop supplies remain low and market prices are unusually higher than normal. With the dry season expected to start in October, it is unlikely that rainfall conditions will improve in these districts.

In most districts of Uganda, mainly well-distributed rainfall in September will help contribute to crop growth. Dry spells however continue to hamper cultivation and livestock conditions in the Mbarara and Kisoro districts of southwestern Uganda. Most of the crop is expected to come from the agricultural region of Labwor in the Kotido district where the production remains good, though below normal.

According to FEWS, the situation is improving but 200,000 people in the Kotido and Moroto districts are expected to be in need of external food aid until the beginning of the next harvest in October 2001. Insecurity in the Gulu and Kitgum districts of northern Uganda and the Bundibugyo district of western Uganda has led to 600,000 people being internally displaced. These have only limited access to cultivable land and are dependent on local and international humanitarian agencies for assistance.