HORN OF AFRICA: Crisis averted but drought-affected situation "precarious"

NAIROBI, 6 October (IRIN) - The UN Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on the drought in the Horn of Africa has warned that while a regional crisis has been averted, by timely humanitarian action, it is far from over. Catherine Bertini told the UN Secretary-General in her report on the Horn of Africa drought that although a massive relief effort has enabled the delivery of record amounts of relief food and other emergency services, millions of people are still at risk.

In Nairobi, a mission member who travelled to the drought-affected countries said much now depended on the arrival of rains in October. Brenda Barton, who was part of the Special Envoy's mission to the region in September, told IRIN that a crisis had indeed been averted, but not exaggerated. "We still have 150,000 mt of relief food pouring into Djibouti every month," to avoid high death rates and malnutrition, she said.

Concern still focuses on Kenya, where initial donor response was slow, and rains have been particularly poor, humanitarian sources said. The humanitarian needs for Kenya would continue into next year, confirmed Barton, because the drought was "biting down hard" - especially in pastoralist areas.

Arid districts of the country have been severely affected, and have experienced partial or total crop failure and shortages of pasture and water for livestock, humanitarian sources said. WFP estimate some 3.5 million people in 19 districts of Kenya are "severely affected" and targeted for emergency food aid. But below normal rainfall has been predicted for the forthcoming rainy season in northern and northeastern parts of Kenya, where the drought is worse, the report of the Special Envoy pointed out.

In Gode, the Somali Region of Ethiopia - where the epicentre of the drought hit crisis proportions - malnutrition-related deaths have dropped from 355 in March to 100 in July. Supplementary and therapeutic feeding programmes are gradually being phased out, a report by the UN humanitarian office in Addis Ababa said. New boreholes and wells and rehabilitation of existing water sources have improved access to water for drought affected communities.

But aid workers warn that rains in October will be critical for the recovery of regions affected in Ethiopia. Since the emergency in Gode in March, the estimate of total drought-affected populations in Ethiopia has increased from 7.7 million to 10.2 million after a re-assessment in June showed below normal rainfall in most areas. Food needs for Ethiopia were revised to 1.3 million metric tons, UN sources said.

The donor response to Ethiopia has been positive, Bertini's report pointed out. Ethiopia attracts a quick donor response because it "is associated strongly with famine and fund-raising," humanitarian sources said. But livestock and seeds remain sectors of "great concern ... as no funds have been provided so far through the UN," said the report.

Concern remains for the situation in Eritrea. Its Red Sea province remains drought affected and where humanitarian needs there have been enormously increased by the effects of the last round of fighting in the two-year border conflict with Ethiopia. An estimated one-third of the population has been displaced, humanitarian sources said. The affect of the drought means that internally displaced people (IDPs) have been denied normal labour opportunities, pointed out Barton.

The situation of the drought-affected and war-affected "are closely interlinked", said Bertini in her report to the UN Secretary-General. Some 400,000 internally displaced people have returned to their places of origin out of an initial 1.1 million people displaced when hostilities resumed - but over 200,000 people remain in camps for the displaced and the rest continue to reside among host communities or are scattered along river beds and in the mountains.

The movement of internally displaced people to drought-stricken areas has placed an additional strain on "the already diminished resources", said the report. With the resumption of hostilities, scarce resources were diverted from the drought-affected to the war-affected.

"No food surpluses are available from the war-affected areas" which normally produce 75 percent of Eritrea's agriculture, lamented the report. Emergency assistance is likely to last well into 2001, humanitarian sources stressed. Only 40 percent of the UN regional drought appeal for Eritrea has been pledged; and only 18 percent of non-food needs have been met.

In Djibouti, an estimated 150,000 people are believed to be hit by drought. But humanitarian officials in Djibouti told IRIN there was concern that Djibouti tended to be "overlooked" as it played more of a transhipment role for food aid for other countries. The humanitarian situation in the Red Sea port has been aggravated by the influx of drought affected people from neighbouring countries "who are not considered refugees but nevertheless require humanitarian situation", said the report.

Distributions "started late" with food relief first given to the drought-affected in June. The report stresses that although Djibouti is a small country, it has "many interlocking problems, drought being but one of many".

Somalia was the only country that could report an improvement, with a good harvest and a reduction in the drought-affected population. Free food distributions were phased out in June in favour of food-for-work, and most communities had adjusted well, said the report. But, the donor response to the UN regional drought appeal for Somalia had been "extremely poor", lamented the report, with only 10 percent of total needs met.

With the humanitarian situation in the region still very fragile "urgent donor contributions are required," said Bertini. New assessments are needed, rains are still expected, and drought-affected communities are still in a precarious state, she warned. "They have lost much of their livestock assets and have little or no food."