SOMALIA: New government brings hope to war-ravaged country //Yearender//

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

NAIROBI, 6 Jan 2005 (IRIN) - The creation of a transitional federal government for Somalia after two years of tortuous peace talks between its various clans and factions brought a glimmer of hope that the strife-torn Horn of Africa country, long regarded as a failed state, was finally on the threshold of stability.

The talks, sponsored by the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), led in August to the establishment of a 275-member transitional federal parliament. This was followed, on 10 October, by the election of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as interim president. He was formerly the leader of the self-declared, autonomous region of Puntland in the northeast.

Yusuf named Ali Muhammad Gedi as the country's prime minister and on 30 November, Gedi appointed a 78-member cabinet. However, on 11 December parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Gedi's government, saying his appointment was "unconstitutional and his cabinet too large".

Yusuf re-appointed Gedi two days later, but by the end of the year the prime minister had not reconstituted his cabinet, even as pressure mounted on Somalia's fledgling government to leave its temporary base in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, and re-establish itself in Somalia.

In his New Year message, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki encouraged the Somali leaders to turn their attention homeward.

"They must return [to Somalia] because we were making a government not to stay in Nairobi, but to return home and reconstruct that country," said Kibaki. He also said the country's interim government should not be discouraged by "small fights" inside Somalia.

The Kenyan minister in charge of regional cooperation, John arap Koech, said on 4 January that Somali leaders had assured him they would reconstitute their country's cabinet during the first week of January.

"After the appointment of the cabinet, they are going to plan to relocate to Somalia," Koech added. "I am very hopeful that this time they are going to go to Somalia because they seem to have sorted out the problems that were giving a lot of dissatisfaction to the members of parliament."

FIGHTING AND DISPLACEMENT

Although the peace talks dominated the news reports on Somalia in 2004, sporadic outbreaks of violence were also reported in various parts of the country.

Initial optimism prompted by the Eldoret Declaration on cessation of hostilities, signed in October 2002 during the first weeks of the reconciliation conference, proved unfounded by mid-2004.

In May and June, fighting broke out in Gedo and in the capital, Mogadishu, displacing thousands of civilians.Access to people in need of assistance was curtailed by the insecurity, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Fighting also raged around the port city of Kismayo, in September, as a failed attempt by Muhammad Sa'id Hirsi "Morgan" to recapture the city from a rival group, the Juba Valley Alliance, leading to displacement and loss of life and property.

More recent violence between the Habar Gedir sub-clan of Sa'ad and Saleebaan, in the central region of Galgadud, resulted in the displacement of thousands of families. Over 200 people died and close to 300 were injured as a result of the fighting which occurred in November and December.

In the north, tension between Somaliland and Puntland over the disputed regions of Sool and Sanaag turned violent in October, with hundreds killed and untold numbers injured on both sides.

Due to insecurity, the needs of Somalia's estimated 400,000 internally displaced persons remained "largely unmet", according to the UN.

CONSEQUENCES OF DROUGHT

According to UNOCHA-Somalia, a season of drought, affecting the Sool Plateau and parts of South Central Somalia, was the key humanitarian emergency in 2004. The cumulative effects of four years of poor rainfall in the Sool plateau and surrounding areas in Somaliland and Puntland caused massive livestock losses, rendered many pastoralists destitute and resulted in increased vulnerability and further displacement.

Abnormal weather conditions in October 2004, at the onset of the Dyer (short rains) season, killed some of the surviving herds, depriving more pastoralists of their livelihood. Apart from loss of lives and livestock, some parts of northeastern Somalia were cut off from humanitarian assistance due to flooding and undeveloped communication networks.

OUTLOOK FOR 2005

The year ended on a high note with President Yusuf's predecessor, Abdiqassim Salad Hassan, stepping down and attending the inauguration in Nairobi.

However, observers say the new government risks losing support and credibility if it does not relocate to Mogadishu soon.

It remains to be seen whether the rejection of the prime minister and his cabinet by the transitional federal parliament was "a healthy exercise" of the assembly's democratic role, as President Yusuf's spokesman put it, or the beginning of a new power struggle between the various groups.

The projection for 2005 is that the situation in Somalia is likely to remain uncertain. Inter-factional conflicts will probably persist and may even escalate in Mogadishu. In a report issued on 22 December, the International Crisis Group (ICG) described the status of Somalia's peace process as "grim, but not altogether hopeless".

"[President] Yusuf and his partners need to use their political advantage to form a genuine government of national unity, rather than attempt to impose their own agenda on the transition," ICG said.

This, according to ICG, is crucial for the new government to get the international recognition and support "it desperately seeks", warning that the alternative could be a resumption of Somalia's conflict.

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