MOZAMBIQUE: Election could be close-run race

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

MAPUTO, 3 Dec 2004 (IRIN) - If Mozambique's last general election five years ago is any indication, this week's ballot is likely to be a close-run race.

In 1999 President Joaquim Chissano, with 52.9 per cent of the vote, was narrowly re-elected, while his main rival and leader of RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama, took 47.7 percent. In the parliamentary vote, the ruling party FRELIMO won 48.5 percent of seats and RENAMO and its coalition partners 38.8 percent.

FRELIMO won large majorities in Maputo, the capital, and the three southern provinces of Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo, and the northern province of Cabo Delgado. RENAMO kept its traditional stronghold in the central provinces of Sofala, Manica and Zambezia - one of the country's most populous. Its respect for traditional leaders and customs has also helped it maintain a rural support base.

Overall, the gap between FRELIMO and RENAMO has narrowed since the first general elections in October 1994 - two years after the General Peace Accord was signed, ending 16 years of brutal civil war between the government and RENAMO.

After 18 years in power, Chissano has stepped down in favour of Armando Guebuza, who represents FRELIMO against Dhlakama and a third presidential candidate, Raul Domingoes, leader of the Party for Peace, Development and Democracy.

The presence of Domingoes, Dhlakama's deputy until 2000, could push the presidential elections to a second round.

The other two presidential candidates are Carlos Reis, leader of the Mozambique National Union, and Yaqub Sibindy, who heads the Independent Party of Mozambique.

Chissano, who retired voluntarily, is widely praised by the international community for his efforts to consolidate peace and rebuild the economy. Since the war ended, Mozambique has been able to boast 10 percent growth each year for the past decade. Yet, over 70 percent of Mozambicans still live in absolute poverty.

Analysts say FRELIMO has faced the challenge of convincing voters in the north and central regions that they have not been deliberately marginalised, and FRELIMO is not an urban-based elitist party that has got rich over the years and forgotten the people in the rural areas.

It also needs to convince the electorate that FRELIMO is serious about stamping out corruption and organised crime - growing problems that impact on the development of the country.

[ENDS]