COMOROS-MADAGASCAR-MAURITIUS: Upheaval won't affect neighbours - analysts

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

JOHANNESBURG, 7 Mar 2002 (IRIN) - The Indian Ocean islands - Madagascar, Mauritius and the Comoros - have all experienced political upheaval in recent times. And analysts say that the latest crisis in Madagascar will not affect the fairly stable region.

"The same can be said of the recent coups in the Comoros which had no effect on the political stability of Mauritius or Madagascar. The islands may share the same geographic location, but that is perhaps where the similarity ends," political science researcher Sanusha Naidu of the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria told IRIN.

Already considered to be two of the poorest countries in the world, the ongoing political upheavels in Madagascar and the Comoros have further damaged their already tenuous economies.

While Mauritius has enjoyed a level of political development enjoyed by few other African countries. The country's political stability is underpinned by steady economic growth and improvements in the island's infrastructure

Hussein Solomon, a political science researcher at the University of Pretoria, told IRIN: "The fear should not necessarily be the repercussions on Mauritius and the Comoros, which are largely controlled by their own internal dynamics, but the impact the unrest will have on the Madagascan economy."

The Madagascan economy has been battered by the two-month long dispute over the presidency. It threatens to undo six years of development and foreign investment which has created more than 100,000 jobs. The World Bank (WB) has warned that 50,000 jobs are in jeopardy and the country risks falling into recession.

Tension has continued in the island state off the east coast of Africa since Marc Ravalomanana, mayor of the capital Antananarivo, alleged the 16 December 2001 presidential election had been rigged to ensure victory for incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka.

Ravalomanana declared himself president in February and appointed ministers to take control of government buildings in the capital. The political crisis is threatening to split the island state, with two governments declared and five provincial governors saying they now recognise a different capital to the opposition-controlled Antananarivo.

An Organisation of African Unity (OAU) delegation is in the country to try to resolve the impasse.

In the Comoros, ongoing secessionist attempts have had a negative effect on an already fragile economy. There have been more than 20 coups or attempted coups since independence from France in 1975 - the latest on 19 December 2001.

Some of the coups have been related to attempts by one or other of the three islands that make up the archipelago to secede from the Federal Islamic Republic of Comoros. Years of instability have left the islands desperately poor. But in December 2001, the 714 000 Comorans voted overwhelmingly in favour of re-uniting the islands of Anjouan and Moheli with the bigger Grande Comore, from which they split in 1997.

Analysts, however, are skeptical of the sustainability of the interim government.

"Comoros is characterised by an unstable political system and weak economy which have in turn led to aspirations of a better future and civil unrest. It is one of the poorest countries in Africa and lacks any strong social organisation," said Dr Heidi Hudson, political science lecturer at the University of Stellenbosh.

To date the conflict has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of soldiers and civilians and a worsening of the already poor humanitarian situation.

While the Comoros, and more recently Madagascar, have experienced unrest, Mauritius remains one of the developing world's most successful democracies and has enjoyed years of constitutional order - despite the recent resignation of two presidents within a week.

Their objection to controversial anti-terror legislation prompted two presidents to resign in the space of five days in February. The bill was eventually signed into law by an interim president, Supreme Court Chief Justice Arianga Pillay. The new law was prompted by the 11 September terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre in the United States. The bill was twice passed by the Mauritian parliament and was championed by Prime Minister Anerood Jugnauth.

Under the constitution, the Mauritian president - whose post is largely ceremonial - is obliged to either sign the bill into law or leave office.

Mauritius has had only three prime ministers since independence in 1968. Even though the previous government of Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam was criticised over corruption scandals, the country preserved its image as one of Africa's few social and economic success stories.

Political processes are used to maintain ethnic balance and economic growth rather than assert the dominance of any single ethnic group, one analyst said.

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