SOUTHERN AFRICA: Dry spell causes concern for harvest

JOHANNESBURG, 14 Mar 2005 (IRIN) - Dry conditions during February have raised concerns of possible failed harvests in several Southern African countries, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

February "is critical in determining final harvest expectations ... and was characterised by a prolonged dry spell in many parts of the SADC region", FEWS NET explained. "Areas affected include southern and central Malawi (particularly southern Malawi), southern and central Mozambique, southern half of Zimbabwe, Swaziland, northern-most parts of South Africa, southern Zambia, and Botswana".

The dry spells came on the back of a generally poor rainy season, with intermittent dry spells and flooding in parts.

"The dry spell (particularly in Malawi) occurred at the tasseling and grain-filling stages, where adequate soil moisture is most critical. However, crops at the vegetative stages have been equally affected, as permanent wilting has been reported in the severely affected areas," FEWS NET said.

Coupled with the reported poor availability of agricultural inputs at the start of the agricultural season, "it is expected to result in reduced crop yields, and subsequent [crop] production shortfalls".

As the between-harvest season progresses, the supply of the main staple food, maize, continues to "tighten in most countries".

"The availability of early-season food crops and food aid interventions is reported to have eased the situation in some of the worst affected areas. Nonetheless, retail maize prices are now rising steadily as last year's stocks are drawn down," FEWS NET noted, which would "heighten food security concerns in the region during the 2005/06 season".

"Many, if not all, of the areas hard hit by the dry spells were similarly affected by poor crop conditions last year, resulting in food production shortfalls that left many of the poorer and vulnerable households struggling to access adequate food. Another below-normal crop will have a more devastating effect on people's ability to cope with continuing food shortages," FEWS NET concluded.

It was critical that national governments and partners undertake timely vulnerability assessments (in April/May) to determine the level of food insecurity and what assistance may be required as a result of production shortfalls, FEWS NET said. Assessments should also take into consideration factors limiting access to food in affected countries.

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